📣 Words I Like
“The market moves first.”

Mortgage rates don’t wait for the Fed. They move based on what investors expect — not what the Fed does on announcement day.

Most people assume a rate cut should make mortgage rates drop. But mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Fed’s short-term rate.
Investors adjust months in advance based on inflation trends, jobs data, and what they think the Fed will do next.
So by the time the Fed actually cuts, the market has already priced it in.
This is why you often see mortgage rates barely move — or even tick up — on Fed day.
The Fed sets an overnight bank rate; mortgages live in a completely different part of the financial world.

• Buyers: Don’t wait for a Fed cut expecting a lower payment — the move may already be baked in.
• Homeowners: Refi windows come from market expectations, not Fed headlines.
• Retirees: Housing decisions tied to timing the Fed often lead to unnecessary delays.
• Agents: Set client expectations early so no one is “Fed-day disappointed.”

👉 Mortgage rates move on expectations — not announcements.

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— Neil Christiansen, Certified Mortgage Advisor