WORDS I LIKE — You can’t predict markets — only structure.
The Fed met this week.
Cameras lined up. Headlines went out.
Every news app pinged.
And mortgage rates barely moved.
Some moved before the meeting even started.
Here’s the part most people miss.
The Fed controls one rate — the overnight lending rate. That’s what banks charge each other to borrow money for a single night. Your 30-year mortgage runs on a completely different track.
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield. That number moves on inflation data, jobs reports, and what investors expect months from now. By the time the Fed speaks, the market has usually already priced in the answer.
Most people watch the Fed and wait. The smarter move is to watch your own numbers — your income, your debts, your timeline. Those are the levers you actually control.
If you’re buying or refinancing, today’s rate is shaped by your credit, your loan structure, and the bond market. Not by Wednesday’s press conference. Waiting on the Fed can mean missing a window the market already gave you.
The headlines will keep watching the Fed. You don’t have to.
THIS WEEK'S TAKEAWAY
The Fed doesn’t set your mortgage rate. Your structure does.
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PS
If a Fed headline has you second-guessing your timing this spring, hit reply with “rate” and I’ll send you what’s actually moving the number.
No spam. No sales pitches. Just clarity.
— Neil Christiansen, Certified Mortgage Advisor
